Saturday’s Tornado Risk For East Texas Has Been Expanded

TORNADO POTENTIAL UPDATE (11:45 am)

The latest advisory from the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the brown-shaded tornado potential slightly south and west. The cities of Lufkin and Nacogdoches are now included in this area. Translated, this means that much of Angelina and Nacogdoches Counties are in that area, which has a 5% chance of having a tornado within 25 miles of their location, up from 2% earlier this morning.

ORIGINAL STORY

A cold front will bring a vigorous storm system across East Texas throughout Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible as the squall lines move through.

The Timing of the Storms

A few scattered showers and storms could start popping up during the midday hours for northeast Texas, but the National Weather Service is expecting the brunt of the thunderstorm activity (including severe storms) to move into the area this afternoon between 3 pm and 7 pm. Storms are still possible beyond that time frame, especially into the later evening hours for southeast Texas and Louisiana.

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What Kind Of Severe Weather Can We Expect?

Gusty, straight-line winds in excess of 50 mph appear to be the major threat from today's expected thunderstorms. This could lead to downed trees, scattered power outages, and some tossed items that are not secured. The biggest threat of hail will be isolated to north-central Texas during the late morning to early afternoon hours.

But what about tornadoes?

Early Saturday morning, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the tornado threat southward to include much of the Pineywoods. The green-shaded area indicated a 2% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point. The brown-shaded area increases the probability to 5%.

What About Flooding?

There is only a slight risk (5% or less) of excessive rainfall leading to flooding in east and northeast Texas. The greatest threat of flooding today will happen in southern Missouri. A half inch to an inch of rain should be common across East Texas, with isolated amounts exceeding that. Hopefully, this will help alleviate the dry conditions that have led to burn bans being issued in almost every county in Deep East Texas.