Major Hurricane Could Soon Form, Texas to Florida May Be At Risk

Hurricane season doesn't end until November 30, with the peak of activity usually occurring during September and early October. So, even though many are looking northward and wondering when our next taste of fall will happen, we also need to keep an eye on the south and what looks to be developing soon in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Latest from the National Hurricane Center

An area of storms off the coast of Honduras is not expected to develop into a tropical system over the next 48 hours (as of this posting), beyond that, however, the system is expected to get better organized as it moves northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters believe the system will turn towards the north and possibly northeastward before making landfall somewhere along the Gulf coastline.

Where and when will it make landfall and how strong will it be? Six computer models have differing outlooks.

CMA (China Meteorological Association)

• This model shows a hurricane landfall on Saturday near Pensacola. The estimated central pressure of the storm is 953 millibars. This would correspond to a possible Category 3 hurricane with winds over 111 mph.

GFS (Global Forecast Systems)

• This model shows a hurricane landfall on Friday afternoon near the Big Bend of Florida. The estimated central pressure of the storm is 972 millibars. This would correspond to a Category 1 or 2 hurricane with winds near 90 mph.

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

• This model shows a landfall on Sunday afternoon near Panama City. With an estimated central pressure of 984 millibars, this could be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane with winds near 75 mph.

ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic)

• This model shows a late Friday landfall southwest of New Orleans, near Houma (can you say Francine repeat?). The estimated central pressure of 999 millibars would mean a tropical storm at landfall with maximum winds near 60 mph.

GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale)

• This model shows a Friday landfall with a track much like the ICON model. Houma looks to be in the target zone, and with an estimated central pressure of 981 millibars, a Category 1 hurricane is forecast.

UM (Unified Model)

• This model is scary, and hopefully very wrong. It also takes the storm into south-central Louisiana late Friday/early Saturday but as a Category 5 hurricane with an estimated central pressure of 908 millibars. That would correspond to winds of at least 157+ mph.

Obviously, many scenarios are in play, but as we get past this weekend, the models should start coalescing into a more uniform outlook. Regardless, anyone residing along the Gulf of Mexico coastline from Texas to Florida should stay updated with the latest forecasts.