Forecasters Make Major Shift in Tuesday’s Tornado Threat in Texas

If you live in the eastern third of Texas, the odds are rather high that you'll be getting some strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) expects regions from Dallas all the way to Beaumont to be at risk.

An updated outlook was sent out by the SPC while I was typing this post, and some major changes have been made to the highest-threat (shaded in brown) area. That enhanced region has been extended westward to include all of the Ark-La-Tex and southward to Rusk, Panola, and Shelby Counties. Previously, none of Texas was in the brown-shaded area.

Biggest Threats for Tuesday

Anyone who lives in the brown-shaded area has the greatest potential for severe weather, however, those living in the hatched area on the map below are at a higher risk of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. This includes all of northern Louisiana.

Damaging straight-line winds will also be a threat with some of these storms. The region highlighted in red on the map below has the highest risk. The hatched area has the biggest threat of winds above 70 mph.

When will the storms hit East Texas, and will they be severe? Let's dive into the specifics of what 5 different computer models are predicting.

GFS (Global Forecast System) Model

• 4 am - 6 am: A solid line of thunderstorms moves across the D/FW Metro
• 9 am: Widespread thunderstorms located from Tyler to Livingston with a few possible severe storms.

ECMWT (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Model

• 6 am: Scattered to numerous storms, some severe, from Dallas to Austin and from Tyler to College Station.
• 8 am - Noon: Storms, a few severe, move into the Pineywoods. The greatest risk and concentration of severe storms will happen from Mount Enterprise to Tyler to Shreveport.

UKMO (United Kingdom Metro Office) Model

• 5 am - 7 am: Widely scattered 'hit and miss' showers and thunderstorms in Deep East Texas, solid line of strong and severe storms across the D/FW Metroplex
• 8 am: Impressive line of severe storms from Crockett to Tyler to Paris
• 9 am - 1 pm: Strong to severe storms will blanket much of the Pineywoods from Polk County to Shreveport

IC (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic) Model

• 5 am: Line of storms move through Dallas, only isolated cases of severe storms
• 8 am - Noon: Line of storms, a few severe, push through from Texarkana to Lufkin to Beaumont

A Synopsis

All models point to a morning storm event across East Texas, especially between 6 am and noon. For the most part, it looks like the severe threat will have all moved out of Texas by early afternoon.